A Theoretical Exercise in Myopic Hysteria
I know for a fact, because of the data that exists, that the Coronavirus is the most intricately tracked disease in Human History. Never before has any disease been given such (supposedly) pinpoint accurate daily updates, even hourly updates, as COVID19.
I know, for example, that the CDC has not been tracking the other strains of Flu as closely as they’ve been tracking the Coronavirus, otherwise, the tally they provide for the number of cases wouldn’t be a range between 38 and 54 million.
This makes me wonder… what would one of these other Flus look like statistically if we tracked it with as much fervor and attention as we do the Coronavirus? The fact is, we have never even attempted to track a “lesser” flu with this much enthusiasm.
How do we know, therefore, that the Coronavirus is “special” with regard to its transmissibility and fatality rates?
I’m not saying that we’re wrong, I really have no idea. I’m just asking a question as a data analyst.
What would it look like if we had tracked the other strains of flu the same way that we’ve been tracking the Coronavirus?
The following is a comparison between the theoretical daily statistics of the 2017-2018 Flu Season against the daily statistics of the Coronavirus.
To calculate the day by day statistics of the 2017-2018 Flu Season, I formulated a symmetrical bell curve based on the CDC’s final data representing the number of New Cases and New Deaths per Day for the period beginning Oct 1, 2017, and ending April 30, 2018 – a total of 211 days. Actually, I added a couple of more days and made an assumption that a typical flu season lasts about 213 days. I plotted 107 points, each one representing a single day of tracking (and the front half of the graph), exactly comparable to what the CDC reports on its website concerning the Coronavirus. The Green MASS of the graph is absolutely correct, but the shape of the curve may vary.
On my graph, Day 107 is the crest of the bell curve. On Day 107, there were more new cases and more new deaths than any other day; 721,895 new cases and 985 new deaths. Before Day 107 the number of new cases and new deaths always increased, after Day 107 the numbers of new cases and new deaths always decreased. Since 44,803,629 people caught the Flu and 61,099 died in 2017-2018, the half way point would be about 22,401,814 total cases and 30,556 total deaths, exactly what my bell curve indicates.
Now, some of you are old enough to remember the Iran Hostage Crisis of the late 70s. Each night, ABC News (Nightline) would devote an hour of broadcast time to provide updates of the dramatic standoff. Their programming would usually start out by saying something provocative, such as, “America Held Hostage – Day 142”.
This is how I am going to report the numbers to you.
I have figured out what the statistics would be for each day of the Flu in 2017-2018.
The CDC has been tracking what the statistics are for each day of the Coronavirus since it began on January 12, 2020.
On day 90 of the Coronavirus Crisis, there have been 33,288 new cases and 1,927 new deaths, bringing the total to 423,537 overall cases and 19,332 overall deaths.
On day 90 of the 2017-2018 Flu season, there were 508,493 new cases and 792 new deaths, bringing the total to 10,925,917 overall cases and 14,903 overall deaths.
It is a fact that more deaths are being attributed to the Coronavirus than the Seasonal Flu, but the total number of cases is totally dwarfed by comparison.
Now, here are the Ten Leading Causes of Death in 2017. I suppose these numbers reflect a period of time between January 1st and December 31st, 2017, so they do not directly align with the 2017-2018 Flu season. The 55,672 deaths attributed to the Flu would theoretically contain data from the last half of the 2016-2017 Flu Season, and the first half of the 2017-2018 Flu season.
| Leading Causes of Death in the United States | |
| Cause | Deaths 2017 |
| Heart Disease | 647,457 |
| Cancer | 599,108 |
| Accidents | 169,936 |
| Respiratory Diseases | 160,201 |
| Stroke | 146,383 |
| Alzheimer’s | 121,404 |
| Diabetes | 83,564 |
| Flu and Pneumonia | 55,672 |
| Nephritis (Kidney) | 50,633 |
| Suicide | 47,173 |
| Homicide | 17,284 |
Source: www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
These numbers are important because they give me a legitimate reason to suspect that the criteria we used to attribute a death to the Flu in 2017-2018 was different than the criteria we use to attribute a death to COVID19 today. I suspect that if we had used the same criteria in 2017-2018 that we use for COVID19 now, the death count would’ve been much higher for the Flu in 2017-2018. Likewise, I also suspect that if we used criteria from 2017-2018 and applied it to COVID19, the death count would be lower.
In other words, the criteria we’re using to attribute deaths to COVID19 are inflating the numbers compared to other years of the Flu.
Of the 1,927 deaths, we attribute to COVID19 today, perhaps only about 800 of them would have been attributed to the Flu in 2017-2018. For instance, if a patient in 2017 died of heart failure after they got the flu, the cause of death would have been listed as Heart Failure, not the Flu. But, now, if a patient dies of heart failure, and they were simultaneously testing positive for COVID19, the cause of death would be listed as COVID19, not heart failure.
Recently, Dr. Deborah L. Birx of the US Coronavirus Task Force admitted just that….
“There are other countries that if you had a preexisting condition — and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem — some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a Covid-19 death. Right now, we’re still recording at… I mean, the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to mark it as Covid-19 infection… The intent is right now that those — if someone dies with Covid-19, we are counting that as a Covid-19 death.” Dr. DL Birx – Coronavirus Task Force briefing (04/07/2020)
Therefore, here is my theoretical exercise in Myopic Hysteria
Dateline, December 30th, 2017.
America Held Hostage – the Seasonal Flu – Day 90!
“Good evening ladies and gentlemen. We have very somber news to report. Today, another 792 people have died from the Seasonal Flu, bringing the total number of dead to 14,903. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a statement today, saying, another 508,493 new cases have been confirmed, bringing the total number of cases for the year to 10,925,917. When will it end?”
Of course, this didn’t happen, but it could’ve.
Here are the Graphs…
Graph #1 shows the number of New Cases per Day for the 2017-2018 Seasonal Flu and the 2020 Coronavirus COVID-19.
As you can see, a magnifying glass is required to view the part of the graph generated by the Coronavirus numbers when compared to the numbers generated by the 2017-2018 Seasonal Flu.
10,925,917 total cases on day 90 for the 2017-2018 Flu vs 423,537 total cases on day 90 for the Coronavirus.
508,493 new cases on day 90 for the 2017-2018 Flu vs 33,288 new cases on day 90 for the Coronavirus. There were more new cases in one day of the Seasonal Flu in 2017-2018 than the entire total number of cases for the Coronavirus over 90 days. 508,493>423,537.
Graph #2 shows the number of New Deaths per Day for the 2017-2018 Seasonal Flu and the 2020 Coronavirus COVID-19.
As you can see, the Number of Deaths attributed to the Coronavirus are significant when compared to the Number of Cases of the Coronavirus – the Coronavirus is statistically more deadly than the Seasonal Flu.
Are more people dying of the Coronavirus than were dying of the Seasonal Flu in 2017-2018? This graph does not prove that. The curve of each graph is markedly different. The Coronavirus curve is very steep and based on actual numbers, while the 2017-2018 curve is gradual and based on theoretical numbers.
The Theoretical numbers I have used for my graph work very well for a comparison of the Total Number of Cases, but they do not work as well for the Number of Deaths.
In 2017-2018, a total of 61,099 people are said to have died from the Seasonal Flu. So far, a total of 19,332 deaths have been attributed to the Coronavirus.