The True Coronavirus Death Rate – A Horrifying Prospect
It is now April 7, 2020, and I am hesitant to publish this.
It is always my objective to be completely honest. I have been diligently crunching the numbers and have been forced to a horrifying conclusion. The only way any of this makes sense, from a real-world numbers standpoint, is if the true COVID-19 death rate is a whopping 20%.
The trajectory of the Overall Number of Cases simply does not add up to a disastrous outcome in any sensible scenario, especially when compared to regular Flu totals of any given year, even if the death rate was 5%.
However, the reason the Governments of Western Europe and the United States are willing to cast their countries into economic ruin with draconian lockdowns is they know the real, unspoken, death rate of the Coronavirus is nearly 20%, not the 3-5% that is so often mentioned; the numbers don’t lie.
Let me explain…
There is something called the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) which is calculated by dividing the number of Deaths by the number of Closed Cases. Closed Cases are those where the patient has either Recovered or Expired. At the beginning of a viral outbreak, this Death Rate calculation is the most reliable and quickest way to determine what to expect.
The Worldometers.info website indicates there were about 34,487 closed cases in the United States, as of 04/07/2020 18:00 MT, and that 12,813 of those had resulted in Death. This means the CFR is about 37%. Utterly horrifying.
The early Case Fatality Rate of an outbreak, however, is usually higher than what the actual death rate will eventually be because the first cases to close generally involve only the people who’ve had to be hospitalized, which means they were of the more serious variety to begin with. As time passes, and the outbreak progresses, more data is collected and more people are tested; mild cases begin to enter the equation and the Case Fatality Rate begins to plummet.
Unfortunately, this has not been happening. The Case Fatality Rate for the United States has been holding in the mid to high 30s for longer than it should if the ultimate Death Rate were really between 3 and 5%.
The same website I mentioned above shows the Case Fatality Rate for the whole World to be about 21%. It has been actually increasing since early March when it was between 5-6%. For this reason, I believe the final Death Rate for the United States will level off at around 20%.
We as Americans need to come together, this is not a political thing, it is not Republican or Democrat. Our Government is doing as well as any other. We’ve been battling the Coronavirus for 86 days, Europe has been battling the Coronavirus for about 74 days, and their Case Fatality Rate is similar. The only Government that can be accused of hiding the True Death Rate is the Government of Red China; they’re the ones who told the world the Death Rate was only between 3-5%. The Governments of the United States and Western Europe probably assumed that China was not telling the whole truth, and that the Death Rate was probably around 10%, not 20%.
We have Seriously curtailed the spread of the Coronavirus with our lockdowns – we have been successful in that regard. If this Flu were allowed to spread like the Seasonal Flu, we’d be talking deaths in the tens of millions.
I don’t want to scare you, I just want you to be prepared.
If you can, wear a mask. If you can’t buy a mask, make one at home.
In the Future, Americans need to invent reusable face masks that make us less susceptible to these kinds of things. There are over 300 million cell phones in the US, we should all own a stylish reusable face mask. Let American ingenuity lead the way – they may be more expensive than the disposable paper face masks, but they wouldn’t be as expensive as a cell phone.
I have been tracking the numbers of the outbreak very closely – not only do they show me that there is a very high Death Rate, they show me something else, something more sinister. I must, however, collect more data before make an assertion. It’s all in the numbers.