{"id":2041,"date":"2020-03-30T18:55:16","date_gmt":"2020-03-31T01:55:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/protocriteria.com\/?p=2041"},"modified":"2020-03-30T20:21:02","modified_gmt":"2020-03-31T03:21:02","slug":"analyzing-a-scary-death-rate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/30\/analyzing-a-scary-death-rate\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyzing a Scary Death Rate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2034\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/30\/analyzing-a-scary-death-rate\/biohazard-symbol-3\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Biohazard-Symbol-3.png?fit=1231%2C1231&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1231,1231\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-title=\"Biohazard Symbol 3\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Biohazard-Symbol-3.png?fit=1024%2C1024&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-2034 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Biohazard-Symbol-3.png?resize=300%2C300&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Biohazard-Symbol-3.png?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Biohazard-Symbol-3.png?resize=1024%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Biohazard-Symbol-3.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Biohazard-Symbol-3.png?resize=768%2C768&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Biohazard-Symbol-3.png?resize=830%2C830&amp;ssl=1 830w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Biohazard-Symbol-3.png?resize=230%2C230&amp;ssl=1 230w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Biohazard-Symbol-3.png?resize=350%2C350&amp;ssl=1 350w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Biohazard-Symbol-3.png?resize=480%2C480&amp;ssl=1 480w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Biohazard-Symbol-3.png?w=1231&amp;ssl=1 1231w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\">Analyzing a Scary Death Rate<\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is now being reported by the following website that approximately 19% of the people whose Coronavirus cases have been resolved have died.\u00a0 This is a very Scary Death Rate.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/\">https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Here is the About Page:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/about\/\">https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/about\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The website calls this Death Rate the <strong>C<\/strong>ase <strong>F<\/strong>atality <strong>R<\/strong>atio (<strong>CFR<\/strong>), and it is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of closed (resolved) cases.\u00a0 In other words, a case is closed when either the patient dies or recovers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If you go to the website you\u2019ll see two boxes right below their featured numbers.\u00a0 One box is labeled \u201cActive Cases\u201d, and the other box is labeled \u201cClosed Cases\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0 The Scary Death Rate that I\u2019m referring to was retrieved from the box labeled \u201cClosed Cases\u201d.\u00a0 In that box there is also a link to a graph.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If you look at that graph you will notice the Line which represents Recoveries (green) and the Line which represents Deaths (orange) starts off close together in February and quickly begins to diverge to a more realistic Death Rate.\u00a0 From early March, however, they\u2019ve been slowly converging.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Why?\u00a0 What\u2019s happening?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After an initial emotional reaction, my rational side began to kick in.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In my younger years, I was a Data Analyst for a large electronics corporation, it was my job to \u201ccrunch\u201d data and make sense of it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Barring anything \u201csinister\u201d, I believe I know what\u2019s going on.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">I humbly hypothesize, with this and most other infectious diseases, that the Case Fatality Ratio would be very high at the beginning of a new outbreak.\u00a0 The first cases to close would be those involving the Most Affected and the Least Affected.\u00a0 In other words, since the weakest die right away and the strongest recover right away, their cases are closed first.\u00a0 The patients who are neither the strongest nor the weakest, the vast majority, will take longer to resolve their cases.\u00a0 They\u2019re in for a longer fight but the numbers show they are far more likely to recover than not.\u00a0 Right now the World Case Fatality Ratio is very high because there has been a new outbreak in Europe and the United States, but that number will drop and the lines diverge as time passes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is very difficult to calculate the Death Rate of a disease in progress; the most accurate Death Rates are calculated after the disease has run its course.\u00a0 Generally, the Death Rate is lower in the final numbers than when the disease was active, although, there have been a few instances where the rate actually increased.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This same website provides a good read on calculating a Mortality Rate here:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/coronavirus-death-rate\/\">https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/coronavirus-death-rate\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">I predict (I\u2019m not certain) the final Death Rate for the Coronavirus will be a little higher than the regular flu, around 2% rather than 0.2%.\u00a0 I don\u2019t see it getting any higher than 5%.\u00a0 The 5% number is the best the CFR has achieved so far, according to the website, but it is running better than that in China (if you can believe it).\u00a0 The CFR in China is 4% and in South Korea its 3%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Analyzing a Scary Death Rate &nbsp; It is now being reported by the following website that approximately 19% of the people [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2041","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-articles"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - 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The Numerical Evidence strongly indicates that the spread of the Coronavirus in Western Europe and the United States is being Deliberately and Maliciously Assisted. The European Union, the United States,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Articles&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Articles","link":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/category\/articles\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/World-PNG-300x300.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2079,"url":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/09\/the-unusual-distribution-of-covid-19\/","url_meta":{"origin":2041,"position":1},"title":"The Unusual Distribution of COVID-19","author":"Freedom Monger","date":"April 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Unusual Distribution of COVID-19 I have been carefully monitoring the worldwide Coronavirus statistics and a distinct pattern has begun to emerge. There is mounting Numerical Evidence in Western Europe and the United States that the spread of the Coronavirus is being Deliberately and Maliciously Assisted. The European Union, the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Articles&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Articles","link":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/category\/articles\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/World-PNG-300x300.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2106,"url":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/13\/coronavirus-death-rate-revisited\/","url_meta":{"origin":2041,"position":2},"title":"Coronavirus Death Rate Revisited","author":"Freedom Monger","date":"April 13, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 The Coronavirus Death Rate Revisited On April 7th, 2020, I published an article entitled \u201cThe True Coronavirus Death Rate \u2013 A Horrifying Prospect\u201d.\u00a0 I had concluded, from the data I had been observing, that the Coronavirus Death Rate would end around 20%. I am using data from 2 sources:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Articles&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Articles","link":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/category\/articles\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Biohazard-COVID-19-300x300.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2066,"url":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/08\/true-coronavirus-death-rate-a-horrifying-prospect\/","url_meta":{"origin":2041,"position":3},"title":"True Coronavirus Death Rate &#8211; A Horrifying Prospect","author":"Freedom Monger","date":"April 8, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The True Coronavirus Death Rate - A Horrifying Prospect It is now April 7, 2020, and I am hesitant to publish this. It is always my objective to be completely honest.\u00a0 I have been diligently crunching the numbers and have been forced to a horrifying conclusion.\u00a0 The only way any\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;News&quot;","block_context":{"text":"News","link":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/category\/news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Biohazard-Symbol-1.5-300x300.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2176,"url":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/23\/coronavirus-death-rate-revisited-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":2041,"position":4},"title":"Coronavirus Death Rate Revisited #2","author":"Freedom Monger","date":"April 23, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 The Coronavirus Death Rate Revisited #2 I have some seemingly Good News.\u00a0 It\u2019s a small study, but it might make you feel better. I\u2019ve been diligently collecting data from these two websites.\u00a0 I don\u2019t need much, just some total case and death figures: worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/ cdc.gov On April 7th, 2020,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Articles&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Articles","link":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/category\/articles\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Biohazard-COVID-19-300x300.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2827,"url":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/15\/cdc-coronavirus-report-12-15-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":2041,"position":5},"title":"CDC Coronavirus Report 12-15-2020","author":"Freedom Monger","date":"December 15, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Active COVID-19 Cases and Fatality Rate in the United States According to Numbers Provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Active Cases = 2,870,265 (up 52,722) (Formula: Total Cases-Closed Cases=Active Cases) Case Fatality Rate = 2.231% (down 0.01223%) (Formula: Total Deaths\/Closed Cases=Case Fatality Rate) \u00a0 Total Cases =\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;General&quot;","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/protocriteria.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/CDC-Logo-2-300x232.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2041","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2041"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2041\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2048,"href":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2041\/revisions\/2048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/protocriteria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}